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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering that is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first chair into it a couple weeks ago and I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually aren’t any money game locks this week for me but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I like the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the fight and I believe she will be the fighter heading for takedowns. I really don’t know how large her ceiling is but in money games it doesn’t really matter a lot since we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles tend to score highly as there are a great deal of scrambles and the grappling improvements really add up. I anticipate this to be a really fun battle, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always looking for no less than 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka did not get that with a triumph. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I’d anticipate near 100 DK points.
Underdog drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle I hope to stay standing, I have quite a lot of interest in this struggle. I think it will be an action-packed fight and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range fight of the week, so I feel a KO from either guy would have a good chance to put them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to be the higher owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but that I will probably have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a much better GPP fight than it is for money games, but I believe dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, however I will have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at the salary and that I don’t see that happening. When he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he likely scores mid 70’s and at his price tag which will not win anybody a GPP. I really don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he can go for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to pay off that salary and I am not inclined to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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